Friday, August 26, 2011

Dancing with the Wolves: The Vix'n lives


The last few weeks of action since Bernanke last spoke, is enough to turn everyone on their head. With exaggerated moves up and down by about 400 points on almost a daily basis, one must question why is the VIX still in the mid to high 40's one day and never going much below the mid to low 30's. When will the VIX return to below operating levels of 20. The truth is that until Europe gets back on track and provides a believable level of financial sustainability, one might expect the VIX to be on the high side for quite some time. This is a trader's delight for when the VIX is this high, it is predicting that 2 - 3% moves on the SPX. Of course, now that Bernanke made no mention of any QE-3, I believe this will give the impetus for the U.S. to get their own financial house in order and have the politicians stop acting like three years old fighting over a bucket in a sand box. As luck would have it, now that we are starting to get back on track, albeit, at a slower rate than anticipated by all, we have Mean Hurricane Irene, which may wallop the entire Northeast of the U.S. and cause up to 100 billion dollars in damage. Even mother nature has decided to give the U.S. a run for its money literary and figuratively.
Here's to a safe weekend to the more than 65 million threatened by the 200 mile Mammoth Hurricane moving up the coast. In the interim, thankfully I purchased a raft from Rite Aide and have two paddles from my crew days which I plan to use to make my way down to Wall Street. Though I am outsider, chances are no one is getting in on Monday but those on boats - maybe by Monday, I will be an insider again.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Bernanke to the Rescue



From one of my trading colleagues, I was told of the story of one professional who was force to sell out his entire account and take 3.5 million loss. The colleague said to me, "you make it slow, and you lose it fast." Those words sent shivers down my spine as I watched my own margin calls pounce upon me and demands from my brokerage to put up or sell out. I was out of capital. I told them that the VIX never gets to 48 and the last time it was there, there was a reversal of massive proportions by the next day. I have sold naked the VIX 25 August Calls @ 1.20 and they had gone against me to 12.10 and by the end of the day, today, they were still against me by only by about half of yesterday which meant I could get a half night of sleep tonight as oppose to yesterday when I was so bugged eye that I swore that should I ever get into the black that I would never ever trade again - I have made that promise to myself more than once and I always break it. With Bernanke's clear and concise statement of keeping interest rates low until the middle of 2013. One can only imagine what this means for companies - the goal of hitting 1400 seems like a very real possibility and by the end of the year. The VIX still has a chance to retrace back to normal levels as in under 25 or closer to 20 and 19. We shall see.